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Situation in Cuba: the Communists Convene

27.01.2012

Castro has lowered expectations for any new economic reform announcements, saying that internal party affairs will be the business at hand. But many Cubans will be watching for signs of who is rising in the party's ranks — and who could take over after Raul and Fidel Castro, both in their 80s, are gone.

During the 47 years that Fidel Castro ruled this island, he often surrounded himself with younger, hand-picked proteges like economic planner Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque. They were always on TV, seemingly groomed as the next generation of Cuban leaders. But in 2009 they were sacked, caught on secret recordings disparaging the Castros and their trusted circle of aging comrades. Raul Castro has made clear that the island's next leaders will have to rise through the party ranks in Cuba's provinces, says Rafael Hernandez, editor of the Havana journal Temas.

Cuba's old leadership was a debate topic this week for Republican primary candidates in Florida facing questions about what would happen if Fidel Castro dies. The retired comandante fired back in one of his opinion columns Wednesday, calling their contest "the greatest competition of idiocy and ignorance" he has ever heard.

That's about all Fidel Castro does these days. He's 85 and hasn't appeared in public in months. His brother Raul is firmly in charge, and whoever succeeds him is likely to follow the example he has set, gradually opening the economy to ease Cubans' frustrations. But major political reforms are not in the offing, says Miriam Leiva, a former diplomat who became a dissident writer in Havana.

"The main thing is that they don't let the population decide anything. And they want to [stay] in power and decide everything," Leiva says, "because the Cuban population is accustomed to just accepting what comes from power, and Cubans know they cannot change anything."

Nick Miroff for NPR.org

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